Bar stock variance and shrinkage calculator
Compare what left the shelf with what your sales recipes and recorded losses explain. Use one product and one unit, such as litres, throughout the calculation.
How is stock variance calculated?
Actual depletion is opening stock plus receipts minus closing stock. Unexplained variance is actual depletion minus expected recipe usage and separately recorded non-sale movements. In the example, depletion is 45 units, explained usage is 42 units and unexplained variance is 3 units, costing £54.
| Measure | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Actual depletion | 50 + 20 − 25 | 45 units |
| Explained usage | 40 + 2 | 42 units |
| Unexplained variance | 45 − 42 | 3 units |
| Variance cost | 3 × £18 | £54 |
Does a positive variance prove theft?
No. It means stock depletion exceeded the entered explanations. Check counts, delivery timing, recipe measures, substitutions, yield and unrecorded waste first. A negative variance is also an investigation signal; it can reflect understated closing stock in a previous period, incorrect recipes or duplicate sales usage.
How should I handle cocktails and waste?
Convert each sold recipe into the same ingredient unit as the stock count. A cocktail serve is not a bottle. Record complimentary drinks and staff drinks either in expected usage or in the explained movement box, never both. Waste already included in a usable-yield recipe cost must not be deducted twice.
What does the percentage mean?
The displayed percentage divides unexplained variance by expected recipe usage. It is not a percentage of purchases or revenue. When expected usage is zero, the percentage is undefined; the unit and cost variances still remain useful. Compare venues only with the same denominator and count convention.
Read next
Follow the stock variance investigation guide and recipe cost method. For reporting, request venue early access.